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Monday, November 21, 2011

[CPSI NewsWire: Xanadu to Start Drilling on Noble JV Project]

CPSI NewsWire brings you market updates on Mongolia, compiled by CPS International, a Mongolian marketing arm of CPS Securities, a Perth, WA based stockbroking and corporate advisory firm, specialising in capital raising for mining and junior stocks.

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See Mongolia related quotes at bottom of newsletter

 

XAM -2.44% in first half trading

Xanadu Mines to kick off drilling targeting metallurgical coal in Mongolia

November 21 (Proactive Investors) Xanadu Mines (ASX: XAM) will shortly begin its much anticipated drilling at the highly prospective Javkhlant metallurgical coal exploration project in Mongolia.

The exploration is part of the company's strategic alliance with Noble Group (SGX: N21), Asia's largest diversified commodities trading company.

Javkhlant (JV earning up to 80%, Xanadu earning 40%) has the potential to a host a large premium coking and /or  thermal coal deposit of Permian and Carboniferous age in the South Gobi  basin, very close to the burgeoning energy and metals demand from China and nearby Asian markets.  

Importantly, the project is only 200 kilometres from the  Chinese rail network at Hami and reconnaissance exploration has identified numerous coal subcrops over a strike of about 40 kilometres.

The company is up for the challenge of exploring the south western Gobi Altai Province of Mongolia, about 22 kilometres from the Burgastai border crossing point into China.

Brian Thornton, Xanadu's chairman said "for the first time our drilling program will run right through the Mongolian winter, with results released progressively over the next three months."

Under the terms of the agreement, the joint venture vehicle Ekhgoviin Chuluu LLC (EC) can earn up to 80% of the Javkhlant coal exploration licence by meeting various spending commitments over 2 years, including completion of a JORC Resource.

Through a thorough regional reconnaissance exploration program targeting coking coal over the last 18 months, Xanadu's geologists recognised the potential of Javkhlant.

EC has contracted an reverse circulation drill rig to conduct a scout drill program of up to 4,000 metres at Javkhlant to test the numerous coal subcrops.

Xanadu listed on the ASX on 21 December 2010, following a raising of A$24 million, and currently has two thermal coal assets, Galshar and Khar Tarvaga.

The company is progressing exploration of its highly prospective suite of licences for coking and thermal coal, copper and gold in the south east Gobi, and copper at Sharchuluut.

Xanadu had a healthy A$22.4 million cash on hand at 30th September 2011.

Link to article

Link to XAM release

 

C @ COMMENCES ROADSHOW AND ISSUES UPDATED TIMETABLE

November 18 -- C @ Limited (ASX: CEO, "C @", or "Company") wishes to advise that it has commenced its capital raising roadshow, which on successful completion will see the Company fund, inter alia, the acquisition of eight coal licences in Mongolia covering a total area of approximately 625km2 ("Project") and position itself in a major emerging coal province.

Importantly, a number of these licences are close to existing producing assets and infrastructure with close proximity to major energy markets like China and Russia.

The Company's recent due diligence drilling campaign intersected massive black coal seams up to 60m on its Ovorhangay province licences, with test work on these intersections identifying high quality coal with coking properties both near surface and at moderate depth.  

Immediately after acquiring the Project, the Company intends to undertake an exploration program consisting of geophysics and drilling, to demonstrate the economic potential of the coal seams, with the aim of defining an initial JORC compliant resource on the licences. All of the licences have had limited exploration but offer considerable potential.

Furthermore the Company has elected not to pursue a suspension of its listed securities on the ASX at this time, as originally detailed in the Prospectus dated 9 November 2011. The Company confirms that it expects the suspension to commence on the day of the Annual General Meeting, immediately before the completion of the capital raising.

In all other respects the timetable under the Prospectus will remain the same, as detailed below.

Indicative Timetable*

Event

Date

Lodgement of Prospectus with the ASIC

9 November 2011

Priority Offer Record Date

10 November 2011

Priority Offer and General Offer Opening Date

10 November 2011

Annual General Meeting

Suspension of the Company's securities from trading on the ASX (from the opening of trade)

30 November 2011

Closing Date for General Offer

(5.00pm WST) 1 December 2011

Last date to register transfers on a preConsolidation basis

4 December 2011

Allotment of Shares under the Prospectus on a postConsolidation basis

12 December 2011

Settlement of Acquisition

12 December 2011

Anticipated date the suspension is lifted and the Company's Securities recommence trading on ASX (subject to satisfaction of Chapters 1 and 2 of the ASX Listing Rules).

19 December 2011

* This timetable is indicative only and subject to change. The directors of C @ reserve the right to amend the timetable.

Link to release

 

MRC: Director Resignation

November 18, Mongolian Resource Corporation Limited (ASX:MUB) --

The directors of Mongolian Resource Corporation (MRC or the Company) announce the resignation of Stockley Davis as a Non Executive Director, effective 17 November 2011.

The Chairman, on behalf of the Board, expressed thanks for the contribution Stockley had made for the Company, particularly during the reverse acquisition via the then Alamar Resources Limited.

Link to release

 

CAML: Change of Adviser

November 18, Central Asia Metals Plc (LON:CAML) --

CAML, a mining exploration and development company focused on base and precious metals in Central Asia, is pleased to announce the appointment of Canaccord Genuity Limited as Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker to the Company with immediate effect.

Link to release

 

Mongolia Energy (00276) sees turnaround to profit for 1H

November 18 (ET Net) Mongolia Energy Corporation (00276) said it expects the Group to record a profit for the six months ended 30 September 2011 as compared to a loss for the corresponding period in 2010. 

The expected turnaround to profit was mainly attributable to the accounting treatment on the convertible notes issued by Mongolia Energy. 

Its interim results announcement is expected to be released by the end of this month. 

Link to article

Link to MEC release

 

Timing for Mongolia's giant mine IPO still unclear: CFO

* Plans to list Tavan Tolgoi coal mine in HK, London, Ulan Bator

* Mongolia plans to raise $3 bln from listing eastern block - official

* Need to overcome legal, technical issues - CFO

* Investors would look beyond short-term market volatility - CFO

By Kitty Hamilton

BEIJING, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Mongolia plans to list its giant Tavan Tolgoi coal mine in Hong Kong, London and the Mongolian capital of Ulan Bator, but it is still too early to say exactly when, the newly appointed chief financial officer for the project told Reuters.

The Mongolian cabinet set up a new company to serve as the vehicle for the triple listing of the eastern block last week, but there is still a lot of work to do before shares can begin trading, said Angus Caithness, CFO at Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, the state-owned entity charged with developing the project.

"Obviously with this (listing), there are a number of legal and technical issues to be overcome," Caithness said in an interview.

Khurelbaatar Chimed, chief of the cabinet office and member of a government working group on Tavan Tolgoi, said last week that Mongolia plans to raise $3 billion from the triple listing.

Senior politicians -- including Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold -- have said the eastern section of the Tavan Tolgoi project would be ready for its stock exchange debut at the end of the first quarter of 2012, but critics have cast doubt on the timetable.

Before the IPO can go ahead, Mongolia's parliament first needs to reach a decision on an investment agreement for the western block of the project, but the deal remains contentious, especially ahead of elections next year.

In July, the Mongolian cabinet said it would give China's Shenhua Group a 40 percent stake in the western block, while handing 24 percent to Peabody Energy of the United States.

The remaining 36 percent would be given to a Mongolian-Russian consortium led by Russian Railways.

After bidders from Japan and South Korea branded the process "unfair," the Mongolian government backpedaled and said nothing had been decided yet.

Caithness played down the controversy.

"Personally I wouldn't read too much into the turn of events with the contract negotiations as it is always going to be a tough process to find mutually agreeable terms when there are so many parties involved," he said.

"If the agreement had been reached too easily it would suggest to me that the government hadn't negotiated hard enough, as such it actually gives me confidence in relation to the decision-making process."

Any agreement will require the approval of cabinet, the Mongolian Security Council -- a government body responsible for vetting overseas investments -- and finally parliament.

Analysts have warned that if an agreement does not reach parliament before the end of this year, approval could be delayed until after the elections in June, when the composition of the government could change decisively.

"In terms of the process and final decisions, it is hard to say (when it will be finalised), however I do know that everybody is doing their best to conclude the negotiations as soon as possible," said Caithness.

MARKET VOLATILITY

Despite concerns related to the current global financial climate, Caithness said he was confident investors would look beyond short-term market volatility.

"I personally do not see the BRIC nations' growth slowing down too dramatically which suggests to me that prices will remain strong and once the infrastructure constraints in the country are resolved, the company's margins will increase even further," he said.

Mongolia has been keen to bring international expertise to Tavan Tolgoi. The Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit in Mongolia's south Gobi region has estimated reserves of 7.5 billion tonnes of coal, including the world's largest untapped deposit of coking coal used to make steel.

It has already shortlisted BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Macquarie to handle the listing.

Caithness joins former World Bank mining expert based in Mongolia, Graeme Hancock, who recently took on the role as chief operating officer at the project.

Prior to joining Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, Caithness was CFO of Hunnu Coal, an Australian explorer developing mines in Mongolia. Last month, Thailand's top coal miner Banpu made a $493 million takeover bid for the company.  

Link to article

 

Mogi: when seeking clarification on the accuracy of the above article by Kitty Hamilton, the following full transcript of the interview with Angus Caithness was obtained, where the clearness of the IPO timeline was not commented on as clearly as implied in the article

1.      Please briefly introduce your background and new position at TT/what experience you bring to this position. Also when exactly did you start?

Prior to taking the role as CFO at Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi I was the CFO of Hunnu Coal Limited and prior to that I was an Executive Director with Ernst & Young. Hunnu Coal was an ASX listed Mongolian coal company looking to dual list in Hong Kong prior to being taken over by Banpu PCL in late October. While at Ernst & Young I spent a number of years in London providing accounting and transaction advice across the international resources community with a focus on companies from emerging markets who were looking to list on the London Stock Exchange. These included companies such as Kazakhmys, Hochschild Mining, Gem Diamonds, Ferrous Resources and Ophir Energy. As such, I feel I bring a unique skill set to this position, having been working in the local Mongolian market for nearly a year and a half as well as being involved in a number of LSE listings and a proposed HKex listing. Officially I started on the first of November however unofficially I have been assisting ETT for just under a month and a half.

2.      What implication does this announcement have for the future developments of TT.

I think my appointment provides for some additional clarity for investors around the structure of the company as well as the direction it is heading. In particular I would hope that it shows the investor community that the company is taking its corporate governance and international standing seriously. I also hope that internally I will be able to share some of my insights from the international markets while learning a great deal from what I see as a very competent team. 

3.      There has been a lot of concern expressed by international miners and analysts about the decision making behind Tavan Tolgoi - in particular the recent collapse of the initial deal led by a Shenhua-Peabody-MNG/Russian consortium. What are the complications underling this process and how do you see the coming months in terms of reaching a final decision that supports the interests of all involved, including Korean and Japanese? When should a final decision be expected?

Personally I wouldn't read too much into the turn of events with the contract negotiations as it is always going to be a tough process to find mutually agreeable terms when there are so many parties involved. At the end of the day, the Mongolian Government is trying to do what is best for the Mongolian people and therefore they need to negotiate as such. If the agreement had been reached too easily it would suggest to me that the Government hadn't negotiated hard enough, as such it actually gives me confidence in relation to the decision making process. In terms of the process and final decisions it is hard to say, however I do know that everybody is doing their best to conclude the negotiations as soon as possible. 

4.      What's next for TT? How do you see the development of TT playing out in the short and longer term?

ETT is in an amazing position, having the largest undeveloped coking coal deposit in the world and being only 250kms from China, the world's largest coking coal consumer. I think in the short term the company needs to focus on obtaining the capital required to develop its asset appropriately, after which it will focus on ramping up and developing a world class mining operation. Over the next five years I see Mongolia's infrastructure issues resolving themselves and I also feel that the company's approach of using foreign experts to compliment its already excellent team will pay dividends in terms of shortening the learning curve and achieving the international standards all stakeholders are trying to attain. I would also hope that after five years and the appropriate succession planning the company would nearly be in a position to have a fully Mongolian work force and for the company to have made a significant contribution both financially as well as socially to Mongolia and its people.  

5.      Can you please comment on the IPO listing - will it be launched in all three locations (London, HK and UB?).

As announced recently by the Government, the company is intending to list locally as well as in London and Hong Kong. Obviously with this, there are a number of legal and technical issues to be overcome however the Government, the company and its advisors are all working hard to achieve the desired outcome. 

6.      Are there any concerns about the timing of the IPO given the current financial climate?

I would hope that educated investors would look past the short term market volatility when it comes to an asset of this quality given its proximity to China, its extraordinarily long mine life and its position on the cost curve. I personally do not see the BRIC nations growth slowing down too dramatically which suggests to me that prices will remain strong and once the infrastructure constraints in country are resolved the company's margins will increase even further.  

7.      Will the timing of the roadshow  be affected by ongoing difficulties in resolving the investment agreement on the west block of the project?

I do not see this as an impediment to the IPO however we would obviously prefer there to be clarity sooner rather than later. 

8.      Will there would be any sovereign funds investing in the project?

The bookbuild process has not yet commenced so we will have to wait to see, though I suspect there will be a reasonable amount of interest from them.

---

 

Economists oppose Tavantolgoi share change

November 18 (news.mn) Honored economist N.Dashzeveg and Mongol Institute teacher K.Aksoltan are opposing Parliament's proposal to change the way shares of Erdenes Tavantolgoi are allocated. They announced their opposition at a press conference on Thursday.

According to the 39th protocol of Parliament, ten percent of the shares are to be distributed to citizens for free, and another ten percent are to be sold to Mongolian organizations.

Now some MPs want to change that, saying that the ten percent of shares to be sold to organizations might be distributed unfairly to just a handful of groups, so 20 percent of the shares should be distributed to citizens.

But N.Dashzeveg and K.Aksoltan said that would be a bad decision, since it would undervalue the shares. The two economists said they were suspicious that the MPs who suggested change may have been bribed.

They said it was possible to sell ten percent of the shares to Mongolian organizations in a fair way. They also said Erdenes Tavantolgoi needs much money, much of which could be raised domestically.

Link to article

 

Government discusses Oyutolgoi power plant

November 18 (news.mn) The Government is discussing power supply issues at the Oyutolgoi deposit mine, where plans to build a new power plant still await the Government's approval.

According to the Oyutolgoi investment agreement, power is to be imported from China until the new plant is completed by 2017. But the Oyutolgoi project needs the power plant to be built ahead of schedule, due to difficulty importing power from China. Construction will cost an estimated USD 1 billion.

Oyutolgoi currently is getting its power from diesel fuel. Once the Government makes a decision, investors say the new power plant could be built in 18 months.

Link to article

 

New ACA chiefs begin official duties

November 18 (news.mn) On Thursday, acting on the president's nominations, Parliament officially appointed Colonel N.Ganbold, a former emissary from Mongolia to Russia, to be the new Anti-Corruption Authority (ACA) chief, and B.Khurts, the Administration Chief at the National Security Council, to be ACA deputy chief. 

MPs congratulated the two newly appointed officials and wished them well in their work to build a fair society that is free of corruption and independent of political parties.

After the parliamentary session, N.Ganbold and B.Khurts assumed their official duties. They received offices and seals.

Link to article

 

S.BATBOLD RECEIVES FINANCE MINISTER OF KUWAIT

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, November 18 /MONTSAME/ The Prime Minister S.Batbold received representatives, led by Mustafa Jassim Al Shamali, the Finance Minister of Kuwait on November 18. 

S.Batbold thanked them for the visit to Mongolia and expressed a satisfaction with his official visit to Kuwait paid last year, which, as he hoped, "gave an impetus to widening of our partnership ties". 

He mentioned that the great creative construction has been covering not only the mining sector but also the infrastructure, agriculture and other spheres. He thanked the Kuwaiti side for working on erecting a pediatric hospital here, about which was agreed on during his visit to Kuwait. 

The Finance Minister of Kuwait thanked the PM for the audience and congratulated him on the government's actions that led the country to economics successes. He noted that the PM's official visit to Kuwait became an important event in the two countries' relations and collaboration. 

The Kuwaiti Minister said their side is actively working on implementing the project on the pediatric hospital and other programmes funded by the Kuwaiti fund, and added that their results will be of great benefit to the people of our countries. 

"The Kuwait fund has successfully financed Mongolia's auto road sector, and there are opportunities to cooperate in future in infrastructure, mining, health and education spheres," he said. 
For the time being, Darkhan-Erdenet, Erdenet-Bulgan-Unit and Unit-Tarialan routes have been renovated funded by the Kuwaiti fund. 

Link to article

 

Kuwaiti Minister discusses economic opportunities in Mongolia

ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia, Nov 18 (KUNA) -- Kuwait's Minister of Finance Mustafa Al-Shimali, and his accompanying delegation, met on Friday with top Mongolian officials.

Al-Shimali met with Mongolian President's Office Director Patologa and Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold, Minister of Mineral and Energy Dashdorj Zorigt, Minister of Finance Bayartsogt BAYARTSOGT and Minister of Transportation Khaltmaa Battulga.

During these meetings, means of promoting investment opportunities in the financial, economic and banking domains were discussed.

The minister's accompanying delegation includes representatives from the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development and the Kuwait Investment Authority as well as Kuwaiti ambassador to Mongolia Suaad Mubarak Al-Sihaijan

Link to article

 

T. Khaltar: "Every day, Mongolian websites are hacked by the dozen"

November 21 (UB Post) The earliest cyber attack in Mongolia was reported in 1995, when a transportation company programmer sold vital information about his company to a rival company when he left his job. In 2000 an Internet service company lost all of its customers' passwords to an unknown hacker and in 2004 an online conversation between students and presidential candidate N. Enkhbayar was disrupted when the server crashed due to a cyber attack. Since 2000, the main targets for hackers are the Mongolian Government, banks, and educational facilities. Today, cybercrime has grown ever so advanced and dangerous; and online fraud is taking its toll on the population. An interview of the Chief of Cyber Security Center T. Khaltar published in "Undesnii Shuudan" newspaper reveals more on this issue.

-We are living in the century of digital revolution. With information technology advancing every day, cyber crime is also developing with it. This type of crime is increasing in our country. Can you please inform the readers about some examples as a caution?

-Today, cyberspace crime is increasing worldwide. Following the introduction of the Internet, many types of cyber crime have entered our nation. There are many ways to deceive a person over the Internet. Many of the crimes take advantage of a person's naive nature. For example, an online store claims that it is selling a $1,200 computer for half its price, and disappears after receiving payments from the victims. The customers' gullibility is playing an important role here. 

-A company CEO meets a foreign citizen through the Internet. The foreigner suggests investing in a certain company, with a $300 million benefit and they'll share it 50/50. Later, the foreigner claims the investments have paid off, saying "The money transfer requires a fee of $30,000; and come meet me in Beijing." Incredibly, the CEO believes him, paying the fee and flying to Beijing, where he waits for the man in a hotel room until he finally realizes he was deceived. This is just one of many examples. In another case, a woman seeking to marry a foreign citizen is contacted by a man who claims he is from Germany, and he requires $2,000 for her citizenship papers. This goes on for a while until she has paid a total of $25,000. Her suspicions lead to the authorities, and she filed a lawsuit when she was informed that a Mongolian man who impersonated a German citizen deceived her. Individual persons would find solutions to their problems via the authorities and media, but private organizations and banks would keep them a secret, for the sake of their reputation and also fearing loss of customers. 

-In another incident, a megastore announced a massive sale but hackers attacked the store's network system and changed a few values within minutes. The hackers' associates bought a MNT 9 million product for MNT 999 that very day. The barcode is scanned and a price of MNT 999 shows up, what can the cashier do? 

-It takes a lot of research and analysis and other additional work to catch cyber criminals. It's like putting together shredded paper.

-It appears that governments and administrative bodies are always being attacked by cyber criminals. Are there such incidents lately? Are the measures being taken effective enough to protect from these attacks?

-Every day, Mongolian websites are hacked by the dozen. The Government website, even the Cabinet's website has been hacked before; the hackers left messages and changed settings. Even right now, there are reports of public and private university websites under attack by hackers. 

Government computers with top-security information are always off the network. But the administrative bodies are all connected with each other via network, and there many sensitive information on them that the officials themselves are not even aware of. Sending sensitive materials over email is extremely dangerous. Most of the government officials have Yahoo! addresses, and I regret to say that they are often used to transfer government-related files. No doubt the files are almost always intercepted by hackers. We may have the latest cyber technology, but definitely not the latest cyber security. There is a possibility of secret meetings being recorded via mobile phones or other gadgets; or even when a national-level strategy is being prepared on a computer, there is a possibility that the said document is already under someone's else's possession. Such dangerous circumstances are threatening us today.

-Foreigners are very much interested in our natural resources. Isn't it easy for them to find locations of discovered deposits and its estimated reserves? In other words, secrets of Oyu Tolgoi and Tavantolgoi projects are out in the open, aren't they?

-Yes, unfortunately. Everything is prepared and developed on a computer. Other countries have very advanced cyber security. China has developed its own unique operating system, and the United States has developed ciphering systems, which makes it hard for the hackers to interpret it. These are simple examples. But in Mongolia, we come for work on Monday and discover our computers have been vandalized over the weekend, we turn a blind eye and pray that there were IT students experimenting and practicing.

-Tell us more about then dangers of cyber crimes.

-Cyber crime can cause catastrophic consequences. One with Estonian hack attack, in retaliation for taking down a statue, hackers triggered a virtual invasion, causing the whole Estonian network to go offline. There was no Internet connection, every bank transaction was cancelled and there was no communication whatsoever. Also, a country can be invaded without difficulty if the defense is offline, since it is based solely on communication – this especially applies to Mongolia. Today, advanced armies all over the world have their own cyber soldiers, which execute these kinds of operations. This confirms that future wars will take place in cyberspace rather than on land or in air.

-Are there many cyber crime committing individuals and organizations in Mongolia? 

-Currently it is not known. But about 30 percent of computers in Mongolia are "zombie computers," in other words, they are in complete control and monitoring of another user. They take full advantage of this privilege, which includes stealing personal information, files and documents and manipulating email for deception. I've said before, and I'll emphasize on it again: Identifying and catching hackers is definitely not a walk in the park.

Link to article

 

World Bank official: Economic situation still risky

November 18 (news.mn) When World Bank senior economist Rogier van den Brink spoke with our correspondent in September, he warned that, despite robust growth, the Mongolian economy still faced risks. He recently spoke with our correspondent again, after his arrival in Mongolia for discussions relating to the 2012 general budget.  

Q: You said in September that the revised 2011 budget would have an impact on Mongolia's economy. Parliament passed the revised budget and is now discussing the 2012 budget. How will the revised 2011 budget and the proposed 2012 budget affect the economy?

A: Mongolia's economy is growing with amazing speed, and that is attracting the world's attention. But there is a question as whether that growth can be made stable over a long period of time. Economic growth was 17.3 percent at the end of June 2011, and it increased to 20.8 percent at the end of September 2011. All spheres had growth, including the industrial and processing sectors. Also, unemployment has been reduced. But the growth should be correlated to the world economy, which is facing dilemmas these days. The Euro zone has a crisis and its economy could be reduced, and this situation could influence the American economy.

Q: Some economists say the situation could be even more difficult than the 2008 financial crisis. What is your opinion?

A: Some problems that occurred during the 2008 crisis have not been resolved yet, and other difficult problems are arising now. Many countries have invested to support the private sector. But now some countries can not continue this investment, due to political problems in the United States. Europe has not had the capital to implement such programs, though China did hope to implement an investment program.

On the other hand, China's economy is based on exports, and exports directly depend on other countries' economies, so the economies of Europe and the United States could influence China. Chinese exports and economic growth have decreased, and the price of mineral resources has been reduced globally. 

Q: How will the crisis influence Mongolia?

A: The tugrug exchange rate will not be as affected as in the previous crisis period. The Central Bank has implemented a more flexible policy of currency rates, such as increasing policy rates three times and doubling the bank reserve. Inflation reached 34 percent in 2008 but nowadays inflation is 12.6 percent in Mongolia. Despite such monetary policy progress, budget policy has not improved, if it has not worsened.

Q: Some people criticize the proposed budget for being too extravagant and careless. What do you say about that?

A: The 2011 budget expenditure was more than 32 percent higher than the 2010 budget, and the revised 2011 budget increased expenditures by another 20 percent. 2008 budget expenditures increased by about 20 percent, due to new allowances. And social welfare allowances are being included in the current budget proposal. 

It seems to be that the budget has much income but its expenses are also too much, and that poses risks to the economy. The country should have one goal, but the Government and the Central Bank have two different policies. In other words, budget and monetary policies have not been reconciled. 

Q: How do you assess the current economic situation? 

A: I want to remind that the situation has risks and the conditions are hard. The proposed 2012 budget accounts for GDP, revenue, and expenses with much optimism. Certainly the mining sector will have accelerating growth but there are some challenges with border point capacity for coal transportation, which has had bad indicators. Politicians have promised to fulfill their promise of cash allowances. But what about increasing investment expenditures? A large budget is a project that needs much time and planning. Politicians should think realistically about increasing budget expenditures. 

Q: What do the experts think? 

A: I think either the World Bank or foreign experts and economists would all agree that a risky condition is occurring. Economics has an immovable principle to not spend too much. All countries should be guided by this principle. If Greece were guided this principle, the country would not be faced with situation it's now in.

Q: Mongolian politicians have said that they learned lessons from the financial crisis. But they seem to have forgotten. What is your opinion?

A: I wonder about a too extravagant policy instead of a more prudent policy in this difficult period for the world economy. The budget deficit has been estimated at 9.9 percent of GDP in 2011, and this figure is risky. There is a favorable condition to reduce the budget deficit now that income has been improved, but expenditures have been increased. In reality Mongolians should not increase expenditures more than capacity.

Q: What should we do?

A: We all understand the risky situation and need to do something. I hope that Parliament and decision-makers will implement appropriate policies in the budget. In my previous interview, we said that inflation mostly affects citizens with small incomes. But today inflation affects citizens with average incomes. This means inflation has had a direct influence on people, and people may lose faith in the politicians. 

Link to article

 

Mongolia: what are the risks for an economy that's growing at 20 percent?

Монгол хэлээр: Монгол: 20 хувийн өсөлт бүхий эдийн засгийн эрсдэл нь юу вэ?Дэлхийн Банк

November 16 (World Bank Blog, by Rogier van den Brink) There is good news coming out of Mongolia, the land of the eternal blue skies. The economy racked up a second quarter of high growth: the third quarter came in at 20.8 percent, topping the equally amazing second quarter of 17.3 percent (year-on-year GDP growth), as discussed in the World Bank's latest Mongolia Quarterly Update. And while this growth spurt originated in the mining sector, with Oyu Tolgoi—a mega copper and gold mine—getting ready to start producing in 2012 and a whole battery of other, smaller mines producing at full capacity, the high growth is quite broad-based. Even manufacturing is doing well.

There is more good news: unemployment is going down, and, if the pattern from the previous high growth episode applies, we think that poverty is also being reduced significantly.

However, there are some caveats to the good news. The global risks are mounting. Recall that Mongolia was one of the worst affected countries during the last crisis (2008/9), being a small, open economy, dependent on mining. Any mineral price shock immediately impacts the budget. And since Mongolia will have to borrow large amounts of money to put in place the infrastructure to get the minerals out of the ground and on to the market, rising emerging market bond yields are also not good news. Finally, China is Mongolia's main export market, and if growth slows down there, it immediately affects Mongolia. Already, mineral prices are trending down.

Domestically, inflation came in at 11.9 percent in September, and 12.6 percent in October. If you take out food inflation, which has been volatile, core inflation has now consistently, and worryingly, risen throughout the year. This is one of the tell-tale signs of an economy which is overheating. Both the private as well as the public sectors seem to be trying to grow faster than the country's capacity allows.

Further stoking inflation is the cash distribution to all Mongolian citizens. The government is handing out cash to its citizens to fulfill an escalation of political promises about the sharing of the mining wealth made by politicians in the run-up to the last elections in 2008. Senior politicians have now publicly and privately acknowledged that this is not to be repeated, as the transfers fuel inflation. However, there are general elections scheduled for next year. Better make good on the past promises first, say the politicians. After the elections we will stop the handouts. But time will tell.

Already the economic talk on Mongolia's avalanche of TV stations is all about rising inflation and how it erodes the purchasing power of the middle class. And half of the informal sector workers we regularly survey as a barometer of how the poor are doing tell us that their current wages no longer cover their basic needs.

Fortunately, the 2012 Budget contains a targeted poverty benefit (being prepared with assistance of the ADB and the World Bank). This would put in place the type of social safety net to protect the poor from hardships—a net so sorely missed during the last crisis.

What are the policy-makers doing about the rising inflation? To contain inflation, the central bank and the government need to work in tandem to pull in the reins of Mongolia's speeding economy.
The Bank of Mongolia has so far done a commendable job: it raised interest rates three times and banks' reserve requirements twice, which made the governor rather unpopular in certain circles. But without these unpopular interventions, the inflation picture would have been a lot worse. And the Bank of Mongolia's actions are clearly not enough, since core inflation has kept rising. So more tightening will be needed.

In the meantime, the government seems to be working in the other direction. The original 2011 Budget had already raised spending by 32 percent over the 2010 budget outturn. Then, the recently passed 2011 Budget Amendment added another 20 percent of public spending to this. Now, the 2012 Budget proposed by government and currently being debated in parliament would set an all time record for expenditure growth.

Without going into the details, the 2012 draft budget is based on very optimistic projections for GDP, revenues and expenditures. But will foreign direct investment continue its stellar rise? Will the mining sector continue to grow, even though logistical capacity constraints are already apparent? And can public investment really be raised this fast? Is this really possible? Economic observers are hoping that parliament can set election fever aside, reign in spending growth, and support more prudent fiscal management: the type of fiscal management as already defined by the Fiscal Stability Law of 2010.

The FSL is landmark legislation passed with overwhelming majority in parliament in 2010. It contains three fiscal rules to save windfall mining revenues, avoid over-borrowing and restrain over-spending. The World Bank assisted in creating the consensus around the fiscal rules contained in this law, which was also conditionality in the successfully concluded IMF Stand-By Arrangement. We shuttled as many as three delegations of parliamentarians and top civil servants around the world, including twice to Chile—a very well-managed copper producer.

Under the law, the application of the fiscal rules to the budget is phased in over time, with only one rule—the saving of windfall mining revenues into a stabilization fund— operational this year. However, since the economic growth is so widespread, this year's "windfall" revenue growth is coming from many sources, not just mining revenues.

Our advice? With global risks continuing to grow, China's growth slowing down, mineral prices down, and an economy which is overheating, it would be wise to start implementing the spirit of the fiscal rules now. Because one of the key lessons of recent times is that moderation needs to be applied during the good times, and not be postponed to another day. That day could bring clouds to Mongolia's eternal blue skies.

Link to blog

Монгол хэлдээрх нийтлэл

 

<Mogi & Friends Fund A/C>

+12.75%

Mogi & Friends Fund is a tiny fund of A$23K I created in late September with a few friends to put my own (and a few friends') money where my mouth (just mine) is.

Happy to report the Fund is taking part in a seed capital raising for a Mongolian mining service company with already committed contracts to produce immediate cashflow.

Mogi

 

Table: Mongolia Related Stocks (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Name

Symbol

$

Price

Change

+-%

Open

High

Low

Volume

Time

% YTD

% 12 m

Indices

ASX 200

AS51:IND

4,177.00

-81.20

-1.91%

4,238.30

4,239.10

4,172.60

-

18-Nov

 

 

Nikkei 225

NKY:IND

8,374.91

-104.72

-1.23%

8,374.16

8,398.80

8,359.60

-

18-Nov

 

 

Hang Seng

HSI:IND

18,491.23

-326.24

-1.73%

18,561.04

18,561.04

18,398.96

-

18-Nov

 

 

FTSE 100

UKX:IND

5,362.94

-60.20

-1.11%

5,423.14

5,423.14

5,347.89

-

18-Nov

 

 

TSX Composite

SPTSX:IND

11,892.44

-22.99

-0.19%

11,982.36

11,994.41

11,876.49

-

18-Nov

 

 

S&P 500

SPX:IND

1,215.65

-0.48

-0.04%

1,216.19

1,223.51

1,211.36

-

18-Nov

 

 

ASX

Aspire Mining

AKM:AU

A$

0.36

-0.01

-2.70%

0.36

0.36

0.35

511,526

18-Nov

-25.00%

7.46%

Blina Minerals

BDI:AU

A$

0.012

-0.002

-14.29%

0.013

0.013

0.011

7,740,003

18-Nov

-20.00%

-14.29%

C@

CEO:AU

A$

0.045

-0.004

-8.16%

0.048

0.048

0.044

2,111,630

18-Nov

60.71%

136.84%

General Mining

GMM:AU

A$

0.055

0

0.00%

0.058

0.058

0.055

0

16-Nov

-54.17%

-54.17%

Guildford Coal

GUF:AU

A$

0.885

-0.005

-0.56%

0.895

0.895

0.87

794,656

18-Nov

21.23%

80.61%

Haranga Resources

HAR:AU

A$

0.26

-0.025

-8.77%

0.275

0.275

0.26

472,854

18-Nov

-59.38%

 

Hunnu Coal

HUN:AU

A$

1.795

0

0.00%

1.78

1.795

1.78

0

16-Nov

34.46%

60.27%

Mongolian Res Corp

MUB:AU

A$

0.125

0

0.00%

0.125

0.125

0.125

32,000

18-Nov

 

-70.24%

Robe Australia

ROB:AU

A$

0.014

0

0.00%

0.016

0.016

0.014

0

16-Nov

49.73%

83.01%

TVN Corp.

TVN:AU

A$

0.052

-0.001

-1.89%

0.054

0.054

0.051

585,900

18-Nov

420.00%

372.73%

Voyager Resources

VOR:AU

A$

0.075

-0.003

-3.85%

0.078

0.078

0.075

4,480,638

18-Nov

39.86%

Xanadu Mines

XAM:AU

A$

0.41

-0.01

-2.38%

0.44

0.44

0.385

346,747

18-Nov

-27.43%

MSE

A Board

Aduunchuluun 

ADL:MO

MNT

7,700

-77

-0.99%

7,777

7,800

7,700

245

18-Nov

-3.75%

22.22%

APU

APU:MO

MNT

3,490

40

1.16%

3,402

3,490

3,400

4,470

18-Nov

75.38%

106.51%

Atar Urguu

ATR:MO

MNT

38,500

0

0.00%

38,500

38,500

38,500

0

4-Nov

113.89%

Baganuur 

BAN:MO

MNT

15,000

-500

-3.23%

15,299

15,299

15,000

60

18-Nov

42.86%

59.57%

Mogoin Gol

BDL:MO

MNT

28,000

0

0.00%

28,000

28,000

28,000

0

16-Nov

137.29%

209.22%

BDSec 

BDS:MO

MNT

3,701

1

0.03%

3,701

3,701

3,701

4

18-Nov

48.04%

57.16%

Bayangol Hotel

BNG:MO

MNT

39,500

-300

-0.75%

39,500

39,500

39,500

34

18-Nov

65.27%

71.74%

Bayanteeg 

BTG:MO

MNT

30,001

1

0.00%

30,001

30,001

30,001

20

18-Nov

3721.78%

UB BUK

BUK:MO

MNT

38,352

0

0.00%

38,352

38,352

38,352

0

16-Nov

743.83%

Eermel

EER:MO

MNT

2,555

-45

-1.73%

2,600

2,601

2,555

279

18-Nov

-11.13%

41.94%

Gobi 

GOV:MO

MNT

4,999

-1

-0.02%

5,000

5,000

4,702

188

18-Nov

-10.73%

-8.28%

Gutal

GTL:MO

MNT

2,210

0

0.00%

2,210

2,210

2,210

0

15-Nov

Hi B Oil

HBO:MO

MNT

200

0

0.00%

200

200

200

210

18-Nov

11.11%

17.65%

Khukh Gan

HGN:MO

MNT

196

1

0.51%

196

196

196

510

18-Nov

4.81%

24.05%

Hermes Centre

HRM:MO

MNT

55

0

0.00%

55

55

55

17,976

18-Nov

1.85%

3.77%

Jenko Tour Bureau

JTB:MO

MNT

96

0

0.00%

96

96

96

879

18-Nov

2.13%

-2.04%

Telecom Mongolia

MCH:MO

MNT

2,850

100

3.64%

3,000

3,000

2,850

221

18-Nov

-18.57%

-13.64%

Mongolia Dev Res

MDR:MO

MNT

1,250

50

4.17%

1,250

1,250

1,250

1

18-Nov

-3.85%

0.00%

Moninjbar

MIB:MO

MNT

138

2

1.47%

138

138

138

10

18-Nov

20.00%

13.11%

Mongol Nekhmel

MNH:MO

MNT

2,800

100

3.70%

2,700

2,800

2,700

190

18-Nov

115.39%

159.26%

Hotel Mongolia

MSH:MO

MNT

798

0

0.00%

798

798

798

9

18-Nov

Darkhan Nekhii

NEH:MO

MNT

6,600

0

0.00%

6,600

6,600

6,600

0

17-Nov

34.69%

103.08%

Nak Tulsh

NKT:MO

MNT

200

0

0.00%

200

200

200

410

18-Nov

-38.46%

-37.50%

Olloo

OLL:MO

MNT

138

0

0.00%

138

138

138

10

18-Nov

-8.00%

-17.86%

Remikon 

RMC:MO

MNT

148

-5

-3.27%

153

153

148

161,091

18-Nov

105.56%

97.33%

Sharyn Gol 

SHG:MO

MNT

13,000

0

0.00%

13,000

13,000

13,000

36

18-Nov

23.81%

18.18%

Shivee Ovoo

SHV:MO

MNT

20,999

-1

0.00%

20,999

20,999

20,999

16

18-Nov

61.53%

49.99%

Sor

SOR:MO

MNT

1,800

204

12.78%

1,596

1,800

1,596

299

18-Nov

140.00%

111.77%

Suu 

SUU:MO

MNT

70,000

0

0.00%

70,000

70,000

70,000

0

14-Nov

233.54%

283.56%

Tav

TAV:MO

MNT

30,000

0

0.00%

30,000

30,000

30,000

0

16-Nov

Talkh Chikher

TCK:MO

MNT

11,499

1449

14.42%

10,050

11,500

10,050

259

18-Nov

210.78%

238.21%

Tavantolgoi

TTL:MO

MNT

11,100

0

0.00%

11,100

11,200

11,100

153

18-Nov

92.71%

107.48%

State Dept Store 

UID:MO

MNT

490

1

0.20%

489

490

460

2,114

18-Nov

13.95%

15.84%

Ulaanbaatar Hotel

ULN:MO

MNT

60,000

0

0.00%

60,000

60,000

60,000

40

18-Nov

118.18%

123.88%

Mongol Savkhi

UYN:MO

MNT

2,620

0

0.00%

2,715

2,715

2,620

0

16-Nov

376.36%

376.36%

Zoos Goyol

ZOO:MO

MNT

800

0

0.00%

850

850

800

32

18-Nov

1.27%

0.00%

HKEx

Solartech Int'l

1166:HK

HKD

0.196

0

0.00%

0.2

0.2

0.193

2,870,000

18-Nov

-79.58%

-80.40%

Winsway

1733:HK

HKD

2.59

-0.05

-1.89%

2.6

2.63

2.57

3,773,000

18-Nov

-42.37%

-34.67%

SouthGobi Resources

1878:HK

HKD

57.55

-2

-3.36%

59

59.05

57

45,383

18-Nov

-42.16%

-33.70%

China Gold

2099:HK

HKD

23.85

-1.15

-4.60%

24.15

24.3

23.8

50,800

18-Nov

-43.21%

CNNC Int'l

2302:HK

HKD

2.03

0

0.00%

2.07

2.07

2

635,000

18-Nov

-76.67%

-78.38%

Real Gold Mining

246:HK

HKD

8.81

0

0.00%

8.81

8.81

8.81

0

18-Nov

-34.28%

-36.80%

Mongolia Energy

276:HK

HKD

0.81

-0.02

-2.41%

0.81

0.86

0.8

36,018,000

18-Nov

-65.09%

-71.68%

Zijin Mining

2899:HK

HKD

3.24

-0.11

-3.28%

3.21

3.29

3.18

25,677,071

18-Nov

-31.31%

-32.80%

Mongolia Inv Group

402:HK

HKD

0.042

-0.001

-2.33%

0.045

0.045

0.042

3,210,000

18-Nov

-71.62%

-75.86%

North Asia Resources

61:HK

HKD

0.375

0.015

4.17%

0.33

0.375

0.33

1,205,000

18-Nov

-58.79%

-70.47%

China Daye Non-Fer.

661:HK

HKD

0.415

-0.01

-2.35%

0.42

0.42

0.41

4,266,000

18-Nov

-25.89%

-6.74%

Bestway Int'l

718:HK

HKD

0.063

0.007

12.50%

0.055

0.065

0.055

1,169,100

18-Nov

-55.32%

-61.82%

Asia Coal

835:HK

HKD

0.118

-0.002

-1.67%

0.118

0.118

0.118

120,000

18-Nov

-52.80%

-54.62%

Mongolian Mining

975:HK

HKD

6.4

-0.31

-4.62%

6.51

6.63

6.35

4,428,898

18-Nov

-29.44%

-26.69%

SGX

LionGold

LIGO:SP

SGD

0.845

-0.005

-0.59%

0.855

0.86

0.845

10,294,000

18-Nov

15.75%

81.72%

LSE

Central Asia Metals

CAML:LN

GBp

65.5

-1

-1.50%

65

65.5

65

5,000

18-Nov

-27.42%

-26.61%

Petro Matad

MATD:LN

GBp

21.25

2.375

12.58%

18.875

21.25

18.75

1,216,615

18-Nov

-82.58%

-81.52%

Metal-Tech

MTT:LN

GBp

5

0

0.00%

5

5

5

20,000

18-Nov

-67.74%

-67.74%

Origo Partners

OPP:LN

GBp

35.25

0

0.00%

35

35.25

35

1,455,638

18-Nov

-14.02%

-10.76%

Tembusu

TIL:LN

GBp

2.375

0

0.00%

2.375

2.375

2.375

0

18-Nov

-13.64%

North

America

Aberdeen Int'l

AAB:CN

CAD

0.63

0.02

3.28%

0.62

0.64

0.62

119,019

18-Nov

-22.09%

6.01%

Blue Zen Mem. Parks

BZM:CN

CAD

0.155

0

0.00%

0.155

0.155

0.155

2,000

18-Nov

Centerra Gold

CG:CN

CAD

20.32

-0.56

-2.68%

20.91

21.94

20.15

376,847

18-Nov

4.61%

25.79%

China Gold

CGG:CN

CAD

3.05

-0.03

-0.97%

3.03

3.15

3.02

190,931

18-Nov

-43.83%

-48.04%

Denison Mines

DML:CN

CAD

1.54

0.03

1.99%

1.5

1.56

1.48

1,309,885

18-Nov

-54.84%

-41.00%

Denison Mines

DNN:US

USD

1.51

0.06

4.14%

1.46

1.52

1.44

1,085,289

18-Nov

-55.85%

-41.25%

East Asia Minerals

EAS:CN

CAD

0.9

0.08

9.76%

0.83

0.9

0.82

299,443

18-Nov

-88.80%

-87.05%

Entree Gold

EGI:US

USD

1.55

-0.03

-1.90%

1.61

1.62

1.55

8,560

18-Nov

-55.20%

-45.04%

Erdene Resource

ERD:CN

CAD

0.405

-0.005

-1.22%

0.395

0.41

0.39

64,265

18-Nov

-67.34%

-32.50%

Entree Gold

ETG:CN

CAD

1.61

-0.01

-0.62%

1.64

1.64

1.61

5,600

18-Nov

-53.60%

-43.71%

Fortress Minerals

FST:CN

CAD

4.09

0

0.00%

4.09

4.09

4.09

2,950

18-Nov

-5.98%

13.61%

Garrison Int'l

GAU:CN

CAD

0.025

0

0.00%

0.03

0.03

0.025

0

17-Nov

-72.22%

-50.00%

Gulfside Minerals

GMG:CN

CAD

0.085

0

0.00%

0.085

0.085

0.085

20,000

18-Nov

-10.53%

-34.62%

Green Tech Solutions

GTSO:US

USD

0.099

0.009

10.00%

0.09

0.099

0.082

211,935

18-Nov

-97.53%

Ivanhoe Energy

IE:CN

CAD

1.05

-0.01

-0.94%

1.05

1.08

1.03

240,482

18-Nov

-61.40%

-56.25%

Ivanhoe Energy

IVAN:US

USD

1.02

-0.01

-0.97%

1.03

1.06

1.01

370,568

18-Nov

-62.50%

-56.96%

Ivanhoe Mines

IVN:CN

CAD

19.61

-0.38

-1.90%

20.02

20.24

19.56

1,228,248

18-Nov

-14.74%

-16.53%

Ivanhoe Mines

IVN:US

USD

19.14

-0.35

-1.80%

19.58

19.751

19.05

2,386,392

18-Nov

-16.49%

-16.92%

Kincora Copper

KCC:CN

CAD

0.32

0.045

16.36%

0.29

0.33

0.29

662,172

18-Nov

18.52%

93.94%

Khan Resources

KRI:CN

CAD

0.245

0

0.00%

0.245

0.25

0.24

133,000

18-Nov

-48.96%

-41.67%

Long Harbour

LHC:CN

CAD

0.1

0

0.00%

0.12

0.12

0.06

0

9-Nov

Lucky Strike

LKY:CN

CAD

0.51

0.035

7.37%

0.51

0.51

0.5

8,900

18-Nov

-64.83%

-47.42%

Lucky Strike

LKYSF:US

USD

0.4522

0

0.00%

0.4522

0.4522

0.4522

0

17-Nov

-68.13%

Meritus Minerals

MER:CN

CAD

0.045

0

0.00%

0.04

0.045

0.035

0

17-Nov

-77.50%

-75.00%

Manas Petroleum

MNAP:US

USD

0.18

-0.01

-5.26%

0.18

0.185

0.17

60,000

18-Nov

-70.00%

-66.67%

Mongolia Growth Grp

MNGGF:US

USD

4.5

0.0085

0.19%

4.4927

4.5

4.288

13,400

18-Nov

 

 

Blue Wolf Mongolia

MNGL:US

USD

9.49

0

0.00%

9.47

9.49

9.47

0

10-Nov

 

 

Blue Wolf Mongolia

MNGLU:US

USD

10.28

0

0.00%

10.2799

10.28

10.2799

0

16-Nov

 

 

Manas Petroleum

MNP:CN

CAD

0.16

0

0.00%

0.16

0.16

0.16

0

10-Nov

Prophecy Coal

PCY:CN

CAD

0.53

-0.02

-3.64%

0.55

0.55

0.53

211,888

18-Nov

-38.70%

-48.49%

Prophecy Coal

PRPCF:US

USD

0.5312

0.0091

1.74%

0.5205

0.5315

0.5105

5,300

18-Nov

-39.77%

-46.95%

Puget Ventures

PVS:CN

CAD

0.49

0

0.00%

0

17-Sep

SouthGobi Resources

SGQ:CN

CAD

7.462

0.022

0.30%

7.44

7.52

7.44

55,474

18-Nov

-38.74%

-36.00%

Solomon Resources

SRB:CN

CAD

0.07

0

0.00%

0.07

0.07

0.07

15,000

18-Nov

-67.44%

-69.57%

Wedge Energy

WEG:CN

CAD

0.015

0

0.00%

0

3-Aug

 

 

Mongolia Growth Grp

YAK:CN

CAD

4.5

-0.1

-2.17%

4.6

4.6

4.41

11,500

18-Nov

 

 

 

---

"Mogi" Munkhdul Badral

Senior Client Manager / Executive Director

CPS International LLC

Telephone/Fax: +976-11-321326

Mobile: +976-99996779

Email: mogi@cpsinternational.mn

P Please consider the environment before printing a copy of this email.

 

Central Tower · 12th Floor · Left Wing · 2 Sukhbaatar Square

Sukhbaatar District 8 · Ulaanbaatar 14200 · Mongolia

 

CPS International is a marketing arm of CPS Securities in Mongolia. CPS Securities is a Perth, Western Australia based AFSL License Holder. To trade ASX and international stocks, feel free to contact me at mogi@cpsinternational.mn or +976-99996779.

 

Disclosure/Disclaimer

CPS Securities, its directors and employees advise that they may hold securities, may have an interest in and/or earn brokerage and other benefits or advantages, either directly or indirectly from client transactions mentioned in correspondence from CPS International.

CPS International advise this email contains general information only and does not include advice. In preparing this communication, CPS International did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. As with any speculative mining company there are significant risks.

 

 

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